The likelihood of the BOJ raising its policy rate in September 2026 is increasing, and a proposal to accelerate the pace of rate hikes to roughly once per quarter is drawing market attention. According to people familiar with the matter, discussions are expected to proceed on the assumption of a meeting on 17–18 September.
Market expectations are strengthening that the BOJ will raise its policy rate in September, and a proposal has emerged to accelerate the pace of rate hikes from the previous frequency of roughly twice a year. According to people familiar with the matter, a shift in the current policy stance is under consideration, with the next meeting scheduled for 17–18 September.
The background includes the risk of renewed price pressures, a prolonged period of yen weakness and rising inflation expectations. Price outlooks among households, companies and economists have risen to nearly 2%, with some exceeding that level. Wholesale price inflation in July remained close to its highest level in three years.
The BOJ began raising rates gradually in 2024 and lifted the policy rate to 1% in June 2026, reaching a 31-year high. The market puts the likelihood of a September decision at approximately 80%, and some observers have pointed to the possibility of quarterly tightening, including additional rate hikes thereafter.