The Nikkei 225 reportedly fell below ¥62,000 around 23 October, while TOPIX declined to just below 3,900 points before attempting to rebound on earnings announcements and the IPO application as catalysts. A Nomura Securities strategist explains that share prices could begin to rise again in the latter half of October.
With earnings announcements by Japanese and U.S. technology companies, monetary policy meetings and the U.S. midterm elections coinciding, attention focused on whether share prices would find a bottom before these key events. The Nikkei 225 fell below ¥62,000 on the morning of 23 October, and TOPIX declined to just below 3,900 points, but the market subsequently attempted to rebound on strong earnings and Anthropic's IPO application as catalysts. At the latest low, the 12-month forward P/E ratio was viewed as being in the low 20s for the Nikkei 225 and around 15.5 times for TOPIX, levels that are likely to remain reference points when the indexes move lower.
Share prices are said to often bottom before key events have passed, and the direction of Japanese and U.S. equities is expected to become clear over the next 1-2 weeks. The market bottom at the end of March 2026 is cited as a past example, with some suggesting that turning bullish after confirming a bottom could be too late. Anthropic's IPO application reportedly involved a public offering in Japan, while trading in perpetual futures attracted attention as an indicator of correlation with futures. Finally, the market was reported to have seen periods of buying on dips near its lows, against a backdrop of movements such as the short-selling ratio and inflows into domestic equity investment trusts.