Nomura Securities’ analysis of past ceasefire episodes indicates that Japanese and U.S. stock indexes have tended to rise from 3–4 weeks before a ceasefire. It also suggests that a pause in rising oil prices and easing concern about hawkish central banks could support higher stock prices under current conditions.
The article examines major war-ending and ceasefire events since 1945, noting that the S&P 500 and TOPIX have tended to rise by an average of approximately 3–4% between 3–4 weeks before a ceasefire and the ceasefire date. It also states that in many cases, the indexes rise by a further approximately 10% over the year following a ceasefire, and explains that a retreat in elevated oil prices is likely to support higher stock prices under current conditions.
As specific examples of S&P 500 and TOPIX movements before and after ceasefires, the article cites a sample of 11 instances, including 9 TOPIX instances since 1951, to illustrate trends in historical data. The analysis was prepared by S&P, JPX Research Institute, and the Market Strategy Research Department of Nomura Securities.
The analysis notes that some resource-importing countries also outperform. Although oil prices remain elevated, the current high-risk, high-return environment is considered suitable for medium- to long-term investors to diversify the timing of their investments and buy on dips. It also presents observations on the correlation between Nikkei 225 futures and oil prices.
An analysis of the revision index finds that a shift into negative territory is only a matter of time, although the index currently remains slightly positive. Based on an estimate of the implied revision index from TOPIX’s returns over the past five weeks, TOPIX is showing a negative phase for the first time since spring 2025. At the individual stock level, revision efficacy also appears to be leveling off.