The morning dollar-yen forecast calls for a range of 152.900–154.500 yen, and the pair failed to recover 155 yen even after New York traders returned to the market. Reports suggest that remarks by the U.S. Treasury secretary are weighing on market sentiment.
The dollar-yen pair fell about 0.2% yesterday, with yen buying and dollar selling leading the move during Tokyo trading hours on the strength of Japan's wage data. Dollar-yen declined to around 152.89 yen, but later recovered into the 154-yen range as concern over a review of the GPIF basic portfolio receded and WTI crude prices rose. However, dollar-yen failed to recover the 155-yen range that it had broken below the previous day, prompting speculation that the market may have entered a corrective phase following the yen's depreciation.
This morning, it was reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prefaced his remarks by saying, "When I intervene in the yen market, I have an accurate outlook," before warning, "Try betting against me in the yen market; I have information." Market conditions have therefore made it difficult to continue buying dollars and selling yen. Some market participants also expect selling on rallies when dollar-yen reaches the 154-yen range.
The full version of this report is available in the Gaitame.com Report, which contains the latest developments and related information underpinning the dollar-yen market.