With the morning USD/JPY forecast indicating a range of ¥154.500-¥157.500, the focus will be on the battle around ¥155, depending on the results of the US August employment report. Attention is focused on employment data in light of the recent decline and the downside level following intervention.
The morning USD/JPY forecast range is ¥154.500-¥157.500, with the key factors being the US August employment report, including nonfarm payrolls (NFP), and shifts in expectations for FRB rate hikes. USD/JPY fell sharply by around 1.8% based on the previous day's closing price, as expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike and changes in the outlook for US rate hikes drove a stronger yen and weaker dollar. Some market participants believe that levels around ¥155.22 and the ¥155.03 level seen during the Golden Week intervention are providing downside support, and the battle around USD/JPY 155 is likely to influence the market trend.
The key event today is the US August employment report, with the pace of growth in nonfarm payrolls and average hourly earnings in focus. The market expects NFP to increase by around 55,000, but an unexpected decline in employment could cause expectations for rate hikes to recede. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month on month and 3.1% year on year, and these figures are expected to affect USD/JPY's short-term direction. The release in the New York session is regarded as an important event directly linked to the battle around USD/JPY 155.