Next week’s markets are expected to be driven by continued strength in US markets and expectations that interest rates will remain elevated. In Japan, focus will be on Prime Minister Takaichi’s policy speech, the announcement of new TOPIX constituents, and the full-scale start of June–August earnings announcements.
US equities ended higher, and US long-term interest rates are expected to remain elevated. Rate-hike expectations could shift depending on the employment report, while persistently high oil prices also call for caution in risk-asset trading. Against this backdrop, the Japanese market is expected to focus on assessing underlying capital flows.
Key events next week include the convocation of an extraordinary session of the Diet and Prime Minister Takaichi’s policy speech on the 5th, the announcement of new TOPIX constituents on the 7th, and the full-scale start of June–August earnings announcements. AI-related stocks, regional bank stocks, and earnings from SAAS-related companies are also expected to attract attention.
In foreign exchange and interest rates, USD/JPY is expected to move through periods of stability and appreciation, while concern over coordinated Japanese-US intervention remains. The South Korean market will be closed on certain days, and semiconductor-related stocks could affect the Japanese market.