At last night's FOMC, the decision to leave interest rates unchanged was signaled, and the market reassessed the possibility of a rate hike. There were fewer hawks than expected, and a December rate hike was viewed as almost certain, while the number of future rate hikes was also discussed. Gold prices traded in a range of $4,030–$4,080.
Following last night's FOMC, market participants focused on the reaction to the decision to leave the policy rate unchanged and on the number of dissenters. Based on recent comments, the prevailing view was that the number of rate-hike hardliners would remain at around 2, while the Fed's monetary policy continued to maintain uncertainty over future interest-rate trends.
According to reports, a rate hike in December was viewed as almost certain, and another rate hike was also expected in 2027. It was pointed out that these expectations would affect the market's sensitivity to interest rates.
Gold prices were sold on expectations of rate hikes from December onward, then bought when the presence of participants cautious about rate hikes was confirmed. As a result, gold prices swung sharply within a range of $4,030 to $4,080. The possibility of a break below $4,000 was suggested as downside risk.
Discussion also intensified over the relationship between AI investment and dollar interest rates. Views that interest-rate levels were affecting AI investment and that the market was moving into a stage of choosing between investments were both expressed. The start of the midterm elections was also expected to affect market developments going forward.