Nomura Securities' research department announced an upward revision to its forecast for total shareholder returns to ¥55.6 trillion in fiscal 2026, comprising ¥31.6 trillion in total dividends and ¥24.0 trillion in total share buybacks. The revision reflected the large number of dividend increases and share buyback announcements made from April through June.
The top-down forecast for Japanese companies in fiscal 2026 was revised upward to ¥31.6 trillion in total dividends, up 20.3% year on year, ¥24.0 trillion in total share buybacks, up 27.3%, and ¥55.6 trillion in total shareholder returns, up 23.3%. From fiscal 2027 onward, dividend increases are expected to track profit growth, while share buybacks are expected to remain at high levels but decline slightly. The total shareholder return ratio is expected to rise to 68.5% and the dividend payout ratio to 38.9%, both higher than in the previous fiscal year.
Dividend increases were prominent in earnings announcements for the April-June quarter. The median forecast dividend payout ratio for fiscal 2026 among TOPIX constituents exceeded 40%, and the number of companies with ratios around 40% is increasing. Share buyback announcements also followed one after another, reaching ¥20.6 trillion since the start of 2026 and ¥12.9 trillion since the start of fiscal 2026, as of 25 August.
Annual share buyback authorization of approximately ¥20 trillion to ¥25 trillion was estimated to be sustainable. In light of the excess capacity on Japanese companies' balance sheets, the view was expressed that pressure to return capital to shareholders is likely to continue. As a follow-up, a list was also presented of companies that had shown a tendency to announce share buyback authorizations or dividend increases from September through November.