The market will focus this week on the Jackson Hole symposium, U.S. long-term interest-rate management and Fed remarks, movements in the PCE data, and Japanese inflation indicators, including Tokyo CPI.
The Jackson Hole symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, will draw attention this week, while remarks by the Fed chair following the U.S. Treasury’s intervention in the long-term Treasury market are also being discussed as a backdrop. The outlook is expected to reflect a mix of the intervention and the market’s response, together with heightened inflation concerns.
A key indicator will be the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for July. Core PCE is expected to rise by around 0.2% month on month, with the year-on-year increase projected at approximately 3.3%, roughly unchanged from the previous month. The market is expected to look for clues about monetary policy in the data.
Monetary policy developments in other countries will also be in focus. The release of minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the ECB is expected to provide clues about interest-rate hike expectations, while Japan’s unemployment rate and Tokyo CPI could serve as factors in assessing further rate increases.
The main events on the schedule include U.S. new home sales on the 25th, Jackson Hole-related events on the 27th and 28th, and a speech by Fed Chair Warsh. Japan is expected to release machinery orders on the 27th and the unemployment rate and Tokyo CPI on the 28th.