The U.S. stock market this week is expected to assess consumer trends based on earnings reports from major retailers, while the release of the FOMC minutes is also likely to draw attention.
The New York stock market this week is expected to focus on gauging the state of U.S. consumer spending as major retailers release their earnings. Last week, the Dow declined, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 rose for a third consecutive week. The S&P 500 set record highs both intraday and at the close. The market viewed the slowdown in July CPI and PPI growth positively as a sign of easing inflation.
At the same time, factors including movements in oil prices and the decline in U.S. retail sales in July could limit downside. The VIX remained at low levels, and expectations were growing that major political and economic disruptions would be limited toward the weekend. Major retailers scheduled to report earnings include Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe's and TJX. Consumer trends by income group and the extent of pressure on lower-income households will be key areas of focus.
Among economic indicators, the release of the FOMC minutes and Friday's S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will draw the market's attention. The New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index for August are due tonight, although relatively few major companies are expected to report earnings. With the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole meeting and Nvidia's earnings due next week, the market is expected to show a mix of caution and underlying resilience.
For semiconductor stocks, Analog Devices' earnings are viewed as an indicator of industry demand. Nvidia's earnings will draw market attention as a key event that could influence trends in AI demand and data center investment. Approximately 85% of S&P 500 constituents that have reported earnings so far have exceeded market expectations, and the combined actual and forecast earnings growth rate is expected to remain high.