U.S. stocks rebounded on 9/11, but caution remains warranted. Japanese stocks remain in a downtrend, although factors specific to the end of September have raised hopes of a rebound.
In the U.S. stock market on 9/10, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 0.6% from the previous day, marking its fourth consecutive decline, as heightened tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices weighed on the market. The Dow rebounded on 9/11, rising 0.97% from the previous day to approximately $52,573, but market participants are said to remain focused on movements in crude oil prices and long-term interest rates.
In the United States, August PPI rose 5.4% year on year, accelerating from the same month a year earlier, while CPI was announced to have risen 3.4% year on year. Expectations of a Fed rate hike have increased, while the market is closely watching interest-rate and inflation data ahead of the FOMC meeting on 9/15–16.
Although WTI crude oil futures fell temporarily amid developments in the Middle East, uncertainty surrounding maritime transportation remains. The market has cited OpenAI’s announcement of slower development and a delayed IPO, as well as the Houthis’ seizure of an island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, among the factors posing risks to the market.
Japanese stocks rebounded on 9/10 for the first time in 3 sessions, but fell sharply on 9/11 as selling in AI- and semiconductor-related stocks pushed the market lower. Over the medium to long term, expectations are building for a rebound on factors related to the interim period-end, and buying is anticipated ahead of the final cum-dividend trading date on 9/28.
Factors likely to affect the stock market going forward include the ex-rights date on 9/28, end-of-period portfolio-adjustment buying, developments at OpenAI in the United States, and risks in the Middle East.