Expectations of a rate hike in the U.S. market are rising in September, and the S&P 500's long-term performance is considered to be deteriorating. Meanwhile, in Japan, market participants are focusing on potential reversals of August trends and return reversal patterns.
September is considered by some to be a difficult month for the U.S. market, with expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the FOMC gaining ground. The S&P 500 has tended to deliver its weakest long-term performance of the year during September, and this is reportedly likely to affect market movements in August.
The first half of August often moved in the opposite direction from the second half of July. In September, concerns about a renewed deterioration in the situation in the Middle East and the release of U.S. inflation data are expected to be key points of focus. Rising long-term U.S. interest rates are considered likely to cap the upside for the Nasdaq and the SOX Index.
From the perspective of return reversal, Services ranked highest among sectors, followed by Marine Transportation, Nonferrous Metals, Other Products and Mining, while Insurance ranked lowest in the cases observed. AI- and semiconductor-related stocks showed no significant movement, and overall trading value has been trending slightly lower.
With expectations of an additional Bank of Japan rate hike increasing, many market participants expect the indices to remain range-bound. The outlook suggests that Insurance may rise, while Services and Marine Transportation may weaken as signs of overheating emerge.