Against the backdrop of NVIDIA's earnings and the Jackson Hole meeting, Itoshima Takatoshi (糸島孝俊) discusses the outlook for the September market amid the concurrent expansion of AI and rising interest rates. The Nikkei average is expected to be driven by monetary policy decisions in Japan and the US.
The Tokyo market on the 31st was sold in the morning before recovering, and the Nikkei average closed at its high for the day in the 66,000 range. Following the Jackson Hole meeting, expectations for further rises in US interest rates are coming into focus, and attention will now shift to the next monetary policy meetings of the central banks of Japan and the US.
Itoshima Takatoshi (糸島孝俊) said the market is likely to remain within a 60,000-70,000 range, although the extent of the rise in interest rates could cause greater fluctuations within that range. NVIDIA's earnings exceeded expectations and the company provided its outlook for the next fiscal year, leading him to believe that excessive concerns over AI investment have eased.
The two factors shaping the September market will be expanding AI demand and rising interest rates. While further significant gains in the Nikkei are likely to remain limited, funds are expected to flow more readily into value stocks such as bank shares, which benefit from higher interest rates.
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates, but if the US opts to leave rates unchanged, AI and semiconductor-related stocks could potentially enjoy a temporary rebound. If rate hikes continue, domestic high-dividend stocks will become more attractive investments.
The situation in Iran remains a potential driver of the Nikkei average. If a ceasefire is reached and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes, the Nikkei could break above 80,000, while a deterioration in the situation carries the risk of pushing it down into the 50,000 range.