[Hideki Wajima (和島英樹)’s Market Forecast] — Close attention to Japan-U.S. monetary policy and interest-rate trends, with investor interest focused on stocks with strong earnings (Kabutan News)

In the September Tokyo stock market, attention is expected to focus increasingly on monetary policy and interest-rate trends in Japan and the United States, making sustained buying of technology stocks less likely. Meanwhile, domestic corporate earnings have been stronger than expected, and one view is that downside risk is limited as investors assess developments in Japan and the United States along with the impact of exchange rates. The schedule includes September economic indicators, FOMC announcement dates and the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting, while investor interest in high-dividend stocks is also expected to increase as the last day to buy shares with dividend rights approaches. In the United States, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, employment report, PPI, CPI and FOMC decision have been identified as key points of focus.

Domestic corporate earnings are strong. First-quarter results showed TOPIX-based operating profit up 23% year on year, while full-year operating profit is expected to rise 12% from the previous fiscal year. The Nikkei Average’s PER has recently been around 17 times, and attention is also focused on changes in valuation levels before and after earnings announcements. Some analysts have pointed to significant earnings contributions from the electrical equipment, nonferrous metals and marine transportation sectors, including semiconductor- and AI-related stocks. The market is also focused on the reaction to Nvidia’s earnings and the trend in upward revisions by Japanese companies.

Capsule-toy-related stocks are also attracting attention as an investment theme. Related stocks including Bandai Namco Holdings, which operates the Gashapon brand, Happinet, a leading capsule-toy distributor, and Takara Tomy have been identified for consideration.