Companies have successively revised their earnings forecasts upward in their earnings announcements, and more companies view the weaker yen as a tailwind. The article organizes the full-year outlooks of major companies, their assumed USD/JPY rates and the difference from current spot levels.
Earnings announcements for the April–September period continued from late October, and major exporters raised their full-year forecasts. Toyota Motor raised its operating profit forecast from ¥3.4 trillion to ¥3.9 trillion, Honda from ¥650 billion to ¥780 billion, and Hitachi from ¥1.52 trillion to ¥1.56 trillion in Adjusted EBITA. Mitsubishi Motors, Aisin and Canon, however, revised their forecasts downward despite the positive impact of the weaker yen.
The average USD/JPY rate from April to September was ¥159.31, as the weaker yen exceeded the assumed level at the beginning of the fiscal year. The full-year outlooks and assumed USD/JPY rates of many companies are shown in the table, with assumptions ranging from around ¥160 to the ¥150s. Hitachi used an actual average of ¥159, while Komatsu lowered its assumption to ¥150, among other revisions to assumptions.
Companies continue to estimate assumed exchange rates on the weaker-yen side. Assumptions were revised toward a weaker yen through the June and September Tankan surveys, while the actual OANDA USD/JPY rate moved from the low ¥158s to the high ¥158s. The difference between assumptions and spot rates has been identified as a factor behind the upward revisions.