USD/JPY moved briefly into the 152 range on 8 September 2026, reaching a level not seen for six months. Market views that the exchange rate is approaching a turning point are gaining traction.
USD/JPY briefly recovered to the 160 range following the Jackson Hole meeting on 28 August, but then fell below 155 on 7 September, reaching a level last seen in February this year. EUR/JPY also fell below 180, marking a broad-based yen appreciation phase.
The market currently expects factors supporting yen appreciation, including expectations of BOJ rate hikes and coordinated intervention by Japan and the United States, to persist. Ahead of events such as the US August CPI release on 11 September and next week's monetary policy decisions in Japan and the United States, market participants are alert to the possibility that the break below 155 could mark a turning point.
CFTC data showed that leveraged funds' net short yen position stood at $8.7 billion as of 1 September, recovering to its pre-intervention level. Some observers have pointed to changes in funds' positions as a possible factor influencing yen movements.
The rate assumed in the June BOJ Tankan survey was ¥152.62 to the US dollar, and if yen appreciation continues, manufacturers may need to revise their earnings forecasts. Meanwhile, the Cabinet Office's USD/JPY rate for export companies' profitability was ¥132.20, considerably stronger for the yen than the current level.
Market participants are maintaining their outlook for USD/JPY while remaining wary of downside risks.