In an October survey of 1,720 individual investors, expectations for the Nikkei 225 to rise over the medium to long term remained intact, while expectations for yen depreciation receded. Against a backdrop of movements in AI-related stocks and uncertainty, attention focused on stock selection and the course of monetary policy.
The survey was conducted from 26 to 28 October 2026 and received responses from more than 1,700 individual investors. Although the Nikkei 225 showed volatile movements during the month, expectations for medium- to long-term gains remained intact.
The Nikkei 225 outlook DI was -6.51 one month ahead and +27.56 three months ahead. While the short-term outlook remained unstable, medium- to long-term bullish sentiment was unchanged, and the breakdown of the three-month outlook was largely unchanged from the previous survey.
In the one-month breakdown, the proportion of bullish respondents rose to 23.78%, while the proportion of bearish respondents increased to 30.29%, pointing to continued volatility in the market in the short term.
Movements in Japanese and US interest rates, along with concerns about the finances and monetization of AI- and semiconductor-related businesses, are affecting the equity market. The future direction of the AI-driven market may change depending on stock selection and regulatory developments.
The currency outlook showed that expectations for yen depreciation had receded. Future developments will be watched alongside the course of monetary policy.