The Taiwan contingency is envisioned in multiple stages and forms. In addition to an armed invasion by China, hybrid forms of pressure, including a maritime blockade, cyberattacks and information warfare, are being discussed. The potential impact on Japan's trade and energy transportation has also been highlighted.
The Taiwan contingency is described as involving multiple possible stages and forms based on an assumption of escalating tensions, including not only a full-scale invasion but also limited forms of pressure. Pressure on maritime and airspace, as well as combinations of cyberattacks and information warfare, are envisioned, raising concerns about the impact on critical infrastructure.
An armed invasion of Taiwan proper by China is cited as a typical scenario. In addition to missile and cyberattacks and strikes by naval and air forces, scenarios involving a transition to a blockade or large-scale amphibious landing operations are being discussed. The view has been expressed that China's decision-making and the international situation would affect whether such scenarios materialize.
Limited forms of action, including a maritime blockade and gray-zone situations, are also envisioned, with the potential to place economic and social pressure on Taiwan by obstructing shipping routes around the island. Prolonged disruption to maritime traffic could also affect Japan, given Taiwan's high dependence on imports of energy resources.
Discussion of hybrid forms of pressure, including cyberattacks and the spread of disinformation, is being given increasing importance. Proposals to apply limited pressure to outlying islands such as Kinmen and Matsu are also being considered. It has also been pointed out that the course of a Taiwan contingency could change depending on the level of involvement by the United States and neighboring countries.