The Bank of Japan announced a decision to accelerate ETF sales, but the increase in sales measured at market value is expected to be limited, and Japanese equities are forecast to maintain their gradual uptrend.
At its October 2026 monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Japan unanimously decided to accelerate ETF sales from January 2027. The sales pace will be increased from the previous ¥330 billion per year to ¥860 billion on a book-value basis, but the focus is on sales measured at market value.
As of the end of March 2026, the book value was ¥37 trillion, compared with a market value of approximately ¥107 trillion. Estimates indicate that annual sales measured at market value will increase from approximately ¥88 billion to approximately ¥2.4 trillion.
The period required for the Bank of Japan to complete the sales is expected to be shortened to 43–44 years. There is no new information at present regarding J-REIT sales, and the sales pace remains unchanged at approximately ¥5 billion per year on a book-value basis. The Bank of Japan’s market-value-based sales are expected to remain at a level that will affect market supply and demand.
While the TOPIX is gradually renewing its highs, expectations remain that the Nikkei 225 will continue to face resistance on the upside, suggesting that the Bank of Japan’s exit strategy may be adjusted flexibly in response to market conditions. Listed companies’ share buyback capacity has reached ¥21.8 trillion, supporting supply and demand in some stocks based on results through October.
Many believe that the impact of the Bank of Japan’s ETF sales on stock prices will be limited, and the gradual uptrend in Japanese equities may continue.