A Nomura Securities strategist said the inflection point for Japanese stocks could come between late October and early November. Technology earnings, Japan-US MPM and the US midterm elections were cited as catalysts for the inflection point.
In the October QUICK Monthly Equity Survey released on 13 October, the average forecast for the Nikkei Average at the end of 2026 was sharply revised upward to ¥70,742. The forecast as of September was ¥67,322, indicating that more optimistic views had gained ground. The survey notes that it is based on data as of 14 October 2026. Assessments of the economy, corporate earnings and overseas markets also improved, although some observers noted that optimism may have paused around the 8 October event.
Looking ahead, one scenario sees stock prices resuming their advance if Japan-US technology companies report better-than-expected earnings at the end of October or if a more positive stance emerges at the Japan and US monetary policy meetings (MPM). On the other hand, if there are no major changes in macroeconomic policy following the US midterm elections, the market is expected to remain directionally uncertain even after the reversal has run its course.