The Bank of Japan released its “Summary of Opinions” from the monetary policy meeting held on 30 and 31 July 2026, with views favoring an acceleration in rate hikes standing out. NRI’s analysis points out that 5 of the 13 opinions referred to flexible rate hikes or an acceleration in the pace of rate hikes.
The Bank of Japan’s “Summary of Opinions” comprises 13 items in total, and at least 3 of the 9 Policy Board members are inferred to be likely to support a rate hike at the September meeting. In particular, 5 items referred to flexible rate hikes or an acceleration in the pace of rate hikes.
No cautious views were expressed concerning the impact of an additional rate hike on the economy. However, one opinion noted that “the time lag before the impact of a rate hike weighs on inflation and the domestic economy is approximately one to one and a half years.” This point is interpreted as suggesting that it was appropriate to defer a rate hike at the July meeting, rather than ruling out a rate hike in September.
There may be growing consensus that greater attention needs to be paid to upside risks to prices as the underlying inflation rate approaches 2%. This view also takes into account remarks by Governor Ueda (植田).
Views have emerged that pressure from the administration against rate hikes may weaken. It has been suggested that comments by US Treasury Secretary Bessent following coordinated intervention by Japan and the United States may have been made on the condition that they would not include pressure on the Bank of Japan against raising rates. If such pressure weakens, the Bank of Japan may accelerate the pace of rate hikes.