With the October FOMC under way, gold prices surged to $4,070 on the first day. Prices have since been trending lower, but the long-term outlook presented is for a bottom at $4,000 followed by a move toward $4,500.
The October FOMC is being held over 2 days, 27 and 28 October, and gold prices surged to $4,070 on the first day. The backdrop included the release of US new home sales data. Sales totaled 676,000 units, down 0.6% month on month, while selling prices rose from the previous month.
The market view was that a dovish stance from the Fed, signaling restraint on rate hikes, would be a positive factor for gold. However, given that curbing inflation remains the top priority, the long-term outlook is not uniformly optimistic. There were also periods of short covering in the short term, and the market appeared to regard downside support around $4,000 as firm.
The author presented a long-term scenario in which gold prices bottom at $4,000 and rise to $4,500, and said this outlook was also being monitored in local exchanges of information.
The author also noted that continued discussion of topics such as the GMO incident could revive traditional motives for buying gold bullion, including storing it at home.
Skepticism was also expressed about the risks and speculative nature of FX trading. The article does not directly present investment decisions or forecasts for price movements.