Activity is intensifying around the search for shifts in investment themes in the second half of 2026. The focus is on capital expenditure and large IPOs, while changes in hyperscaler investment trends and the flow of funds remain under active discussion.
The outlook points to shifts in the investment themes driving equity markets at the start of the second half of 2026. In addition to the impact of developments in the Middle East and US interest-rate trends, market participants are expected to reassess their choice of themes for the second half of the year, with capital expenditure and large IPOs identified as particular areas of focus.
The market’s focus temporarily shifted from AI and semiconductors to geopolitical risks, but the importance of a medium- to long-term perspective based on an assumed easing of geopolitical risks was highlighted against the backdrop of oil prices and interest-rate trends. It was also noted that portfolio rebalancing before and after earnings announcements could influence short-term market trends.
AI- and semiconductor-related stocks have been observed to stall since the latter half of June, with the effects of investors’ concentrated positioning and sector rotation cited as contributing factors. With uncertainty remaining ahead of earnings announcements by major companies at the end of July, the market is expected to enter a phase of assessing rebound opportunities from August onward.
In the second half of 2026, the flow of funds through hyperscalers’ capital expenditure and large IPOs is expected to become a key market focus. Attention is also turning to issues such as the extent to which data-center investment depends on external capital and the proportion of market capitalization represented by AI-related companies. Going forward, switching among AI-related stocks may continue depending on the concentration of consensus earnings-growth expectations in the April-June quarter and movements in the yen, including periods of yen appreciation or depreciation.