Nagоcho, an investor with ¥200 million in assets, discusses the market outlook for the second half of 2026 and the prospect of the Nikkei 225 exceeding 70,000 at year-end. The central view is that US market trends and growth in AI and semiconductors will determine the direction of the market.
Japanese equities have remained range-bound at high levels, leaving investors struggling with their buying decisions. Nagоcho, a long-term investor from Nagoya who also runs a stationery shop, discusses the market outlook for the second half of 2026 and a strategy for shifting to the offensive, drawing on assets of ¥200 million.
The Nikkei 225 is expected to exceed 70,000 by the end of 2026 and finish the year in the 70,000 range. Compared with previous forecasts, there is a certain degree of confidence in the view that the advance will continue.
The market backdrop includes leadership from technology stocks in the US market and the expanding adoption of generative AI. Growth surrounding AI and semiconductors is cited as a factor pushing stock prices higher.
The Nikkei 225's gain this year has reached 31%, marking what is viewed as a historic phase comparable with the sharp rise during the IT bubble. These moves are said to be similar in scale to the market when Tokyo Tower was completed in 1958.