Next week (10/19–10/23), earnings from U.S. company Meta Platforms and Japan's September CPI will be key factors, while the sustainability of AI investment and expectations for an additional Bank of Japan rate hike are expected to influence the Nikkei Average.
This week, selling in AI- and semiconductor-related stocks weighed on the market, while concerns over technological advances by CXMT, a major Chinese semiconductor company, became a burden on sentiment. The policy of launching memory products for servers incorporating CXMT's new technology within the year spilled over into other markets, and semiconductor stocks fell at times across Asia.
Meanwhile, credit concerns surrounding CoreWeave worsened investor sentiment. As the company has expanded its AI capital investment through extensive borrowing, views spread that the burden of its borrowings and the outlook for monetisation were unclear. The Nikkei Average plunged on the 14th, but support for NVIDIA emerged in the U.S. market on the 15th, and buying to recover losses strengthened again on the 16th.
The focus next week will be Meta Platforms' earnings and Japan's September CPI. If they indicate that AI-related capital investment can be monetised and that demand remains firm, funds could return to U.S. AI and semiconductor stocks, with buying potentially spreading to the Nikkei Average. Conversely, if concerns such as delays in recovering investment intensify, selling pressure is expected to strengthen, particularly in semiconductor stocks.
For the Nikkei Average, the focus is expected to be on whether it can hold around ¥65,000 as a downside support level. The next upside targets are ¥66,000–¥67,000, with a possible move toward the ¥68,000 range if the recovery progresses. Domestic factors, including the September CPI due on the 23rd and expectations for an additional Bank of Japan rate hike, are said to affect the yen and share prices.