The Nikkei 225 is expected to trade nervously around ¥60,000 in the Tokyo stock market on the 11th, with interest-rate trends driven by US inflation data and the performance of AI-related stocks potentially determining market direction.
The forecast range for the Nikkei 225 is approximately ¥59,500 to ¥65,000, and whether it can hold above ¥60,000 from the opening is expected to be the key test. Following the sharp rise the previous day, Osaka Exchange futures traded overnight were about ¥400 below the cash-market close, suggesting that price movements will remain sensitive depending on interest-rate trends and moves in the yen.
There is a view that the rise in interest rates following the US October CPI data and declines in US technology stocks could encourage profit-taking in AI- and semiconductor-related stocks, which had rebounded sharply. The yen has weakened to the latter half of the ¥158 range per US dollar, which could support export stocks. At the same time, conditions are expected in which this could provide an upside catalyst for export-oriented stocks, including automakers, as well as domestic-demand stocks.
Among individual stocks, attention will focus on the market reactions to Fujikura, which announced earnings in the afternoon session on the 10th, and SoftBank Group, whose net income for the April–September period fell into the red after the close. Depending on the market reaction to companies reporting earnings, overall market sensitivity could increase.
Domestic economic indicators scheduled for release on the 11th include the money stock, machinery orders and earnings announcements from major companies. Overseas, speeches by senior US officials are expected to attract market attention. The market is likely to be influenced by the weaker yen and oil-price trends, while the performance of export and domestic-demand stocks is expected to determine market direction.