The focus for Turkish lira/yen is on whether the pair can hold around ¥3.12, with the direction this week expected to depend on the FOMC and Bank of Japan meeting outcomes and Türkiye's October CPI.
The article points out that yen appreciation was a major factor behind the decline in Turkish lira/yen, while noting that the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye's rate cut was in line with market expectations and did not significantly change dollar/lira trading. The lira's appeal lies in maintaining a relatively high interest rate of around 36%, and the swap payment is estimated at approximately ¥24 per day per 10,000 currency units. Future movements will depend on dollar/yen trends, and the view is that the pace of lira depreciation could continue.
The forecast range for this week is set at ¥3.10–¥3.19, with a central range of ¥3.12–¥3.17. The FOMC is scheduled for the 28th and the Bank of Japan's policy meeting for the 30th, with the possibility of an additional Fed rate hike within the year and the BoJ's willingness to raise rates further serving as key focuses. Türkiye's October CPI will be released on 3 November, and attention is focused on whether it will reinforce or offset the prevailing trend.
The relationship between dollar/yen movements and lira depreciation is important, and a renewed rise in dollar/yen could accelerate lira depreciation. Conversely, renewed yen appreciation or persistently high inflation could support the lira if expectations grow that the TCMB will refrain from cutting rates. For both long and short positions, confirming price movements after the US and Japanese policy meetings will be an important consideration.
The order book shows substantial selling around ¥3.20 on the upside and heavy buying near ¥3.00 on the downside. If the pair falls below ¥3.10, stop-loss selling could accelerate the decline, and the article cautions that actual executions should be assessed alongside the chart.