USD/JPY is expected to trade in a ¥156.50–160.00 range this week, centered around ¥158.75 at approximately 5:00 p.m. US CPI, crude oil and concern over BOJ intervention have been cited as factors to watch.
This week's forecast range for USD/JPY is ¥156.50–160.00, with a central range of ¥157.43–158.75. The forecast has been revised upward from the previous week's outlook, and a break below ¥157.43 is expected to prompt a search for lower levels.
US September CPI, crude oil prices, expectations for BOJ rate hikes and concern over intervention have been cited as the main factors. The possibility that the Fed's rate-hike pace will continue to affect markets beyond December was also indicated. Fluctuations in the Middle East situation could also affect USD/JPY movements.
Attention is focused on whether USD/JPY can break above ¥158.75. The 200-day moving average at ¥158.56 and the area around R1 were cited as upside inflection points. On the downside, a break below ¥157.43 would point to a decline toward around ¥156.50.
Upcoming events include the release of US CPI, comments from Fed officials, BOJ-related developments and IMM positioning, which are scheduled to be reported in follow-up coverage.