Shopify’s third-quarter GMV came in below the forecast of $119.1 billion, which represented a 0.8% quarter-on-quarter decline, and its share price fell approximately 10%. Through its partnership with Shopify, Global-e provides cross-border payments for Shopify merchants and is scheduled to report third-quarter results later this month.
Shopify’s third-quarter GMV increased 29% year on year to $119.1 billion, versus analysts’ forecast of $120.1 billion. The share price fell approximately 10% ahead of the earnings announcement as its elevated valuation relative to analyst expectations persisted. Although the GMV shortfall was limited to 0.8%, the share-price reaction was substantial, while other quarterly metrics remained solid.
Global-e provides cross-border payments for Shopify merchants through Managed Markets, and the relationship continues under the new three-year partnership agreement signed in May 2025. As of the end of June, Shopify held approximately $768 million worth of Global-e shares. Global-e’s second-quarter GMV increased 44% to $2.09 billion, while Shopify’s international GMV increased 37% and North American GMV increased 28%.
Global-e expects third-quarter GMV of $1.995 billion to $2.045 billion and revenue of $308.5 million to $315.5 million, including an expected $24 million to $26 million in Passport-related revenue. Its full-year revenue outlook may have been raised from $1.22 billion to $1.28 billion to $1.35 billion to $1.355 billion. Analysts forecast revenue of $13.4 billion in 2026 and $17.2 billion in 2027.
In terms of valuation, Global-e is valued at a different level from Shopify, with a forward P/E of approximately 25x, near the lower end of its range over the past five years. Shopify’s quarterly results are viewed as a solid indicator for Global-e, but the slowdown in GMV growth is expected to continue.