A former Kioxia R&D researcher discusses the outlook for Japan's AI and semiconductor stocks and the rise of China's CXMT. The article touches on Kioxia's stock split and market trends, with attention focused on future developments.
Amid movements in AI- and semiconductor-related stocks that drove Japanese equities in the first half of this year, Kioxia Holdings has fallen sharply from its highs since June, although the overall market showed signs of recovery in October. Kikuchi Natsuki (菊地夏紀) of もふもふ不動産, a former investor who is also an active investor, says that he assesses these stock trends from an on-the-ground perspective.
Kikuchi is described as having conducted semiconductor R&D at Sony and Toshiba and as having built substantial assets as a successful investor. His cumulative investment gains are said to be approximately ¥200 million, with real estate investments of approximately ¥900 million, making his investment career the central focus of the article.
Regarding the rise of Chinese memory makers, he cites a Nikkei article reporting that CXMT's profit margin had surpassed those of US, Japanese and South Korean players. Although he says that forecasting 3 years ahead is difficult, he believes that full-scale entry into international markets would have a major impact on Japanese companies.
Drawing on past industrial history, he points to the successive declines in the market shares of Japanese companies in lithium-ion batteries and liquid-crystal displays, expressing concern that the scale of investment by Chinese players and their state-driven initiatives could upend the market.
The article presents views based on market conditions as of October 2026, including news of the stock split and developments involving Chinese players.