The Nikkei average finally recovered the ¥70,000 range. The 5-day moving average continues to rise, forming a golden cross above the 25-day and 75-day moving averages, while the Nikkei has moved above the lower boundary of a triangle consolidation pattern and is approaching overhead resistance. Depending on this week's developments, the index may approach or surpass its record-high level.
The Nikkei average recovered the ¥70,000 range on 6 October, reaching a level not seen since 1 July. As part of the trend to date, it was confirmed that the index held above the 25-day moving average on a closing-price basis, as noted in the previous column, and the uptrend has continued.
The 5-day moving average is currently forming a golden cross while remaining above the 25-day and 75-day moving averages, leading to the view that the short-term uptrend is continuing. The index has also moved above the lower boundary of a large triangle consolidation pattern and is approaching overhead resistance, making the movement of the 5-day average this week a key focus.
If the 5-day average can be maintained, the index may break through resistance at the upper boundary of the triangle consolidation pattern and approach the record high based on the 25 June closing price. If the index falls below the 5-day average and fails to recover, concerns about a trend reversal could emerge, with the possibility of a decline toward the 25-day average.
In terms of momentum, both momentum and its signal are above the zero line and rising, making it a focus whether they will rise further this week. If the two lines remain above their previous highs, upward momentum could strengthen, but caution is warranted over a potential peak and downward reversal.