A ¥2.5 Trillion Market by 2030: 20 Carefully Selected Stocks Related to Humanoids and Physical AI, from the Front-Runners to “Small-Cap Stocks Nobody Knows Yet” [Reference Edition]

The global humanoid robot market was worth approximately ¥6 billion as of 2024 and, following published estimates for 2026, is expected to expand to approximately 500,000 units a year and a market size of ¥2.5 trillion by 2030. A turning point illustrating this trend was Tesla's announcement at its earnings release on 21 October that it had begun producing the humanoid robot "Optimus" on a large-scale line at its Fremont plant. The line was designed for annual production of approximately 1 million units, and relocating other companies' production lines is also under consideration.

In the Chinese market, Unitree and UBTECH are leading the way in mass production, while physical AI, in which AI perceives, makes decisions about and acts in the real world through a robot's body, is emerging as the next major battleground after generative AI. The Japanese government has presented a draft roadmap targeting a global market share of more than 30% for AI robots by 2026, with policies focused on strengthening component manufacturing capabilities. Fujitsu began considering a business with FANUC, Yaskawa Electric and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, while Mitsubishi Electric announced a machining system integrating humanoids and machine tools. Demand is recovering, with the value of orders for industrial robots up 40% year on year.

The strength of Japan's component supply base is also noteworthy. Humanoids incorporate multiple joints, reducers, motors and sensors, and Japanese companies are establishing a system capable of supplying many of these precision components. As mass production advances, component manufacturers are expected to benefit increasingly. L covers 20 companies, from leading large-cap stocks to precision component, AI and small-cap companies, with individual analysis of each.