Where Will US Tariff Refunds Go? Nomura Securities Strategist Explains Which Companies Could Benefit

Following the US reciprocal tariff shock in April 2025, the tariff refund process that began in the latter half of April 2026 has attracted relatively little attention. This is said to be due in part to the limited disclosure of information, and the total reciprocal tariffs of US$166 billion (¥26 trillion) are expected to affect the US economy and macroeconomic policy management.

Overseas procurement by the US subsidiaries of Japanese companies amounts to ¥9.0 trillion, of which imports from Japan account for ¥7.1 trillion and imports from third countries for ¥1.9 trillion. The refunds are understood to cover part of the sales and procurement structure of all local subsidiaries other than those in automotive, steel and services, including wholesale and transport equipment.

Tariff refunds to Japanese companies are estimated at approximately ¥400–500 billion, with the effective rate expected to be around 5%. In some cases, a single company may receive a refund of approximately ¥30 billion, potentially raising fiscal 2026 TOPIX EPS by 0.6–0.7%.

Some observers say the share-price response has been muted so far. The companies that may benefit from the refunds span a broad range of sectors, including chemicals and materials, tires, construction machinery, machine tools, air conditioners, electrical and precision equipment, transport equipment and video game consoles. Among consumer goods companies, some are also passing the refunds on to consumers.

The market may be slow to recognize the refunds, and cases in which tariff refunds are reflected in earnings are expected to increase in financial results for the April–June quarter and thereafter. Past additional IEEPA tariffs have already been recorded as cost of sales or SG&A expenses in financial results, and the refunds are expected to be recognized as extraordinary income or non-operating income in the period in which they are received.