Tomoichiro Kubota (窪田朋一郎) discusses the outlook for the November market. Downside potential remains for AI-related stocks, and a turning point may arrive in the second half of the month. The Nikkei 225 has fallen to around a three-month low, while the impact of margin buying balances among individual investors has been cited as a risk factor.
AI-related stocks were weak in the Tokyo market on the 26th, and the Nikkei 225 is said to have fallen to around a three-month low. Although Tomoichiro Kubota (窪田朋一郎) indicated that a short-term rebound was possible, he said that the current storm was likely to continue and that selling pressure on AI-related stocks remained pronounced.
Market conditions are expected to remain difficult in the first half of November. However, even if the Nikkei 225 declines, the market is not expected to fall across the board, and the market is seen as likely to form a bottom only if risk-off conditions and investor sentiment shift. A turning point is said to be highly likely in the second half of November.
NEC, Sony Group, Nintendo and Recruit Holdings were cited as potential investment targets. Advantest and other contrarian plays are also expected to attract attention during a deep sell-off in AI-related stocks. In the US market, attention is reportedly focusing on developments related to Anthropic and hyperscalers' capital investment plans.
Tomoichiro Kubota (窪田朋一郎) is said to be anticipating a rebound turning point in the second half of November, taking into account the Nikkei 225's search for a bottom and the impact of margin buying balances among individual investors. Overall, AI-related stocks may require time to recover, according to the view presented.