USD/JPY briefly rises into the ¥157 range, possible yen-buying intervention; expectations for earnings improvement remain if it stays around ¥155–¥160, Nomura Securities strategist explains

On 30 July 2026 Japan time, USD/JPY moved temporarily into the ¥157 range, heightening speculation over a yen-buying intervention. As upward pressure on US interest rates eased against the backdrop of slower growth in the June US PCE deflator, uncertainty remained over the sustainability of the intervention's effect. Ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting, the market is focused on the authorities' stance of avoiding acceptance of further yen weakness.

In the equity market, there is thought to be a strong sense of caution over excessive concentration through the end of July. However, if earnings from major semiconductor and electronic component companies exceed market expectations, the AI and semiconductor stock rally could resume from August onward. Since early June, the Nikkei 225 has been particularly susceptible to the influence of Korean stocks and US stock futures, while the impact of interest rates and exchange rates is viewed as limited.

Amid expectations for earnings improvement driven by higher interest rates, bank stocks could outperform the market average, while lagging insurance stocks are also likely to attract attention. The analysis reviews the impact of long-term interest rates and expectations for the policy rate on stock indexes, as well as the positioning of each sector.

Most listed companies' assumed exchange rates for fiscal 2026 are around ¥152 per US dollar, while exporters are assuming around ¥150 and importers around ¥155–¥160. Some analysis indicates that expectations for earnings improvement are likely to remain in place if the exchange rate stays around ¥155–¥160.