The BOJ’s monetary policy meeting is being held today, and an additional 0.25% rate hike is expected depending on the outcome. Governor Ueda’s (植田) press conference may provide clues about the timing of the next rate hike.
The focus of today’s BOJ meeting will be whether to maintain the current 1.00% policy rate or implement an additional 0.25% rate hike. At previous meetings, the BOJ decided on a 0.25% rate hike in June and held rates steady in July. The market has priced in another 0.25% rate hike this time, and the voting patterns of the 9 policy board members, the policy statement and Governor Ueda’s (植田) press conference are expected to influence markets.
Depending on the outcome of the BOJ meeting, expectations of an additional rate hike at the next meeting on 17–18 December may strengthen. Regarding the voting, attention will also focus on whether any members supported keeping rates unchanged. The press conference is expected to provide some kind of clue about the timing of the next rate hike.
In the US, August industrial production and the leading economic index are scheduled for release, while the FOMC decided to raise rates by 0.25%. The dot plot suggested an additional rate hike this year, and Vice Chair Bowman and President Schmid are scheduled to speak. Markets will focus on whether this affects the US dollar and the interest-rate outlook for financial markets overall.
In Europe, the BOE is holding a policy meeting, and rates are expected to be left unchanged at 3.75%. Some members support a 0.25% rate hike, and the direction of long-term UK interest rates is also a market focus. In addition, counting of the Swedish general election has been completed, and reports indicate that a change of government is under way.