From 2022 onward, year-end USD/JPY trading ranges in November and December have ranged from ¥5 to ¥18, with major moves in 2024 driven by the Trump trade and in 2025 by yen depreciation under Takaichi. USD/JPY could move sharply again in 2026 depending on the impact of the U.S. midterm elections, analysts say.
Since 2022, year-end USD/JPY trading ranges in November and December have varied widely by year, reaching ¥18.2 in 2022, ¥11.6 in 2023, ¥9.4 in 2024 and ¥5 in 2025. Position adjustments have been cited as the main factor behind the moves. In some cases, the unwinding of short-yen positions, or yen buying, accelerated toward year-end and strengthened the yen.
In 2024, dollar buying based on Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election progressed temporarily, before USD/JPY turned toward yen appreciation approaching year-end.
In 2025, yen selling triggered by the formation of the Takaichi administration progressed, creating a major move in year-end USD/JPY trading.
Looking ahead to 2026, some expect the possibility of a historic Republican defeat in the U.S. midterm elections to affect share-price trends and potentially trigger another major move in USD/JPY. If the year-end trading range again expands to more than ¥5, estimates suggest that the yen could strengthen to around ¥153 per dollar or weaken to around ¥162.