On the BOJ monetary policy announcement dates in 2026, USD/JPY saw heightened intervention concerns, with bullish and bearish candlesticks alternating. The presence or absence of intervention and rate checks are expected to continue influencing market movements.
Since the start of 2026, the BOJ has made 6 monetary policy announcements, and USD/JPY produced 3 bullish and 3 bearish candlesticks on those days. The bearish candlesticks were large, with the widest move exceeding ¥2, while the bullish candlesticks were often relatively narrow or accompanied by long upper shadows. The moves appear to have been shaped by intervention by the Japanese and US authorities.
The 3 bearish candlesticks are considered to have reflected intervention aimed at preventing further yen depreciation. On 23 January, the Japanese and US authorities moved to conduct a rate check to curb yen depreciation. On 31 July, yen-buying intervention was actually carried out, triggering a retreat in dollar strength in some instances.
Among the bullish moves, USD/JPY remained range-bound on 28 April and 16 June amid strong intervention concerns, while a first intervention was carried out on 30 April, causing a sharp decline. On 18 September, expectations of another rate check resurfaced as the pair moved from the ¥155 range to above ¥158, and it subsequently fell back, leaving a long upper shadow.
Other than this, whether rates were raised had little effect on market movements, and the basic pattern is considered unlikely to change with the 30 October announcement. The view presented is that the BOJ market is likely to continue moving with intervention as the “true main driver.”