After U.S. and Japanese long-term yields temporarily plunged, the U.S. yield recovered to around 4.8% and Japan’s to around 2.61%, raising the possibility of a full retracement by mid-November.
U.S. and Japanese long-term yields peaked in early October before turning lower. The U.S. long-term yield rose to 5.36% on 7 October, while Japan’s rose to 3.115% on 6 October. Both subsequently entered a declining trend, suggesting that the end of the rise was coming into view.
Crude oil futures have risen since early October, with WTI temporarily recovering to the $100 range, but yield movements were not directly linked to oil prices. The Nikkei 225 and Nasdaq showed similar movements, with adjustment selling in AI-related stocks considered one factor.
On 6 November, the U.S. long-term yield fell to approximately 4.81%, while Japanese long-term yields fell to approximately 2.610%. Subsequently, as the U.S. long-term yield recovered from around 4.8% to the 5.1% range, Japan’s long-term yield also recovered from 2.610% to 2.870%. The possibility of both markets recovering by more than half of their prior declines has been noted, and expectations for a December rate hike are also being monitored.