Analysis indicates that Japan's foreign exchange market moves daily under a floating exchange-rate system, but that short-term forecasting is impossible. Statistical analysts view movements over periods of up to six months as a random walk and have expressed the view that government intervention should not be treated as a fact.
Japan's foreign exchange market operates under a floating exchange-rate system and is generally said not to be particularly sensitive to movements in the spot market. Many businesses hedge based on assumed future exchange rates, and it has been pointed out that they are unlikely to be greatly affected by actual fluctuations.
From the standpoint of those conducting statistical analysis, including the writer, exchange-rate movements are considered a random walk in the short term and impossible to forecast in advance. Accordingly, the explanation of exchange-rate movements is viewed as no more than a post hoc account, with their direct impact on the economy also considered limited.
Regarding the government's response, the view has been expressed that it may be position talk by financial dealers seeking to benefit themselves and is not the kind of matter that should be covered as news.