Next week will see a concentration of monetary policy meetings in Japan, the US and Europe, led by the US FOMC. The US FOMC is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged, with the decision due at 3:00 a.m. Japan time on the 29th and the press conference scheduled to begin at 3:30 a.m.
Next week brings the ECB Governing Council meeting and the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting, in addition to the US FOMC, with all three expected to leave policy rates unchanged. There are many factors to watch, but the US FOMC is expected to focus on maintaining the status quo.
The US FOMC will release its decision at 3:00 a.m. Japan time on the 29th, followed by Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's press conference at 3:30 a.m. the same day. At the previous meeting in September, the target range for the federal funds rate was raised from 3.75% to 4.00%, and the SEP outlook indicated rate hikes during the year.
The SEP dot plot showed that 16 of its 18 members signaled at least 1 rate hike during the year, while 12 of them expected 1 rate hike. By contrast, recent indicators have weakened expectations for a rate hike, and the probability of rates remaining unchanged has recently increased.
Meanwhile, the ECB Governing Council is scheduled for the 29th, with President Lagarde's press conference set to begin at 10:45 p.m. that day following the 10:15 p.m. announcement. The Bank of Japan's meeting is scheduled for the 29th and 30th, and policy rates are expected to remain unchanged at both meetings.