This week, the release of key indicators including the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey, the US employment report and the PCE price index is scheduled, putting interest-rate trends and AI and semiconductor stocks in focus in the Japanese market. Some believe that developments in the US market could affect the Japanese market through movements in long-term interest rates.
Last week, AI and semiconductor-related stocks led the market as technology stocks rose in the US market. This week, the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey and the Summary of Opinions from its monetary policy meeting are due to be released in Japan, while the US PCE price index is scheduled for release.
Hiroki Takashi (広木 隆) of Monex Securities said that the market expects the year-on-year figure to be flat but the month-on-month figure to rise 0.3, above the previous 0.2 increase. He said that if expectations of accelerating inflation strengthen, this could support expectations of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and make a rise in long-term interest rates more likely.
The US September employment report is also attracting attention. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%, in line with forecasts, while nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by approximately 100,000 month on month. A solid employment environment is being watched as a factor affecting long-term interest rates.
The key indicators for the Japanese market are the Bank of Japan's Tankan survey and the Summary of Opinions from its monetary policy meeting. Depending on developments in the US PCE price index and the employment report, the market's interest-rate outlook could shift.