Full-year guidance cut; a modest profit is needed in Q4

Revenue for the nine months ended June 2026 was ¥1,205.395 million, up 3.3% year on year. Meanwhile, the operating loss was ¥18.913 million, the ordinary loss was ¥19.446 million, and the net loss for the quarter was ¥25.988 million, indicating that higher revenue has not translated into operating profitability. Revised full-year guidance is revenue of ¥1,647 million, an operating loss of ¥16 million, an ordinary loss of ¥17 million, and a net loss of ¥21 million.

Revenue progress was approximately 73.2%, calculated as ¥1,205.395 million divided by ¥1,647 million. On a simple residual basis, Q4 would need to generate approximately ¥441.605 million in revenue. To improve from the nine-month operating loss of ¥18.913 million to the full-year operating loss forecast of ¥16 million, standalone Q4 operating profit of approximately ¥2.913 million would be required. This difference is a benchmark calculated from the disclosed nine-month results and full-year forecast, not the company's Q4 forecast.

The initial full-year forecast was revenue of ¥1,850 million and operating profit of ¥50 million, but this was revised at the third-quarter stage to revenue of ¥1,647 million and an operating loss of ¥16 million. The company attributed the revision to a revenue shortfall caused by losing major projects and a deterioration in the cost ratio due to higher outsourcing expenses as projects became larger. In its third-quarter presentation materials, the company itself assessed performance as tracking below plan. Looking only at revenue progress would therefore overlook the deterioration in profitability.

The company has disclosed seasonality in which delivery deadlines for customers are concentrated in February and March, making second-quarter revenue more likely to be higher than in other quarters. Accordingly, the fact that nine-month revenue progress of 73.2% is close to the 75% of the fiscal year elapsed does not by itself support a high likelihood of achieving full-year guidance. At the next results announcement, it will be necessary to confirm whether Q4 revenue reached approximately ¥442 million, whether operating profit turned positive by at least approximately ¥3 million, when revenue from closing projects will be recognized, and whether full-year guidance has been revised again.