FY2026 full-year forecast requires higher fourth-quarter revenue and profit generation

Nine-month revenue was ¥24.348 billion, representing 71.7% of the ¥33.95 billion full-year forecast. Operating profit was ¥7.329 billion, or 87.6% of the ¥8.37 billion forecast; ordinary profit was ¥7.558 billion, or 90.2% of the ¥8.38 billion forecast; and net income attributable to owners of the parent was ¥5.2 billion, or 87.5% of the ¥5.94 billion forecast. Profit items are ahead of the full-year forecasts, but revenue alone is approximately 3.3 percentage points below the simple 75% benchmark for the end of nine months.

The amounts required in Q4 to achieve the full-year forecasts are ¥9.602 billion in revenue, ¥1.041 billion in operating profit, ¥820 million in ordinary profit and ¥740 million in net income. As a percentage of the full-year forecasts, the required amounts represent 28.3% of revenue, 12.4% of operating profit and 12.5% of net income. Q4 of the previous fiscal year, calculated as the difference between the previous full-year results and nine-month results, produced revenue of ¥9.43 billion, operating profit of ¥2.195 billion and net income of ¥1.691 billion. This fiscal year therefore requires revenue to exceed the previous year's Q4 by approximately 1.8%, while the full-year forecasts can be reached with lower profit than in the previous year.

SHOEI, however, has seasonality in which end demand is concentrated from spring through early summer, making first-quarter revenue prone to being low. Accordingly, some concentration of revenue in Q4 is not abnormal, although sales volume in the current fiscal year was down 0.1% year on year for the nine months. In the annual results, it will be necessary to separately assess Q4 revenue, operating profit and net income, sales volume by region, and the contribution of higher unit prices resulting from yen depreciation.

As of Q3, the company had not changed its full-year forecasts, and its annual dividend forecast remained unchanged at ¥60 per share. At the next results announcement, it will be necessary to check not only the actual full-year results against the forecasts, but also whether the company newly provides FY2027 forecasts, a dividend forecast for the next fiscal year, and a payout ratio or shareholder-return policy.