Q1 secured more than 30% of the full-year profit forecast, but sustainability will be assessed in H1

In Q1 of FY2027, ordinary revenues were ¥70,278 million, ordinary income was ¥21,871 million, and net income attributable to owners of the parent was ¥15,559 million. Year on year, ordinary revenues increased 34.2%, ordinary income increased 75.7%, and net income increased 83.2%, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth.

The full-year forecasts remain unchanged at ¥69,000 million for ordinary income and ¥48,000 million for net income. Dividing the Q1 results by the full-year forecasts gives progress rates of 31.7% for ordinary income and 32.4% for net income. To reach the full-year plan after Q1, the company must generate ¥47,129 million in ordinary income and ¥32,441 million in net income over the remaining 3 quarters.

Prior-year results were ¥58,784 million for ordinary income and ¥40,116 million for net income. The company’s plan for the current fiscal year therefore assumes increases of 17.4% and 19.7%, respectively. Accordingly, rather than judging the potential for a full-year beat solely from Q1’s high growth rates, it is necessary to check over what period the company will generate the ¥10,216 million increase in ordinary income and ¥7,884 million increase in net income required to exceed the prior-year results.

For the interim period, the simple 50% benchmarks under the full-year plan are ¥34,500 million for ordinary income and ¥24,000 million for net income. However, bank earnings are affected by timing differences in interest income and market-related gains and losses, and these are not targets adjusted for the seasonality indicated by the company. In H1, the points to check will be the cumulative Q2 results, whether the full-year forecasts are maintained or revised, and whether a full-year ordinary revenue forecast continues not to be disclosed.