First-half revenue is behind plan, requiring a substantial recovery in Q3

Consolidated revenue for the first half of the fiscal year ending November 2026 was ¥1,414 million, representing 43.7% of the full-year forecast of ¥3,240 million. Assuming the first half accounts for 50% of the full year, revenue progress was approximately 6.3 percentage points below the mechanical halfway mark. The company also described progress as “somewhat behind” the full-year forecast, making Q3 important not simply for year-on-year changes but for determining whether the absolute revenue required to meet the full-year plan can be generated.

Subtracting first-half actual revenue from the full-year forecast leaves approximately ¥1,826 million in revenue to be generated in the second half. Under the simple benchmark of even quarterly revenue, cumulative revenue at the end of Q3 would need to reach ¥2,430 million, or 75% of the full-year forecast, requiring standalone Q3 revenue of approximately ¥1,016 million from the first-half level. This is not the company’s published Q3 forecast, but a mechanical benchmark for measuring progress, and it must be assessed in light of seasonality and the timing of revenue recognition by business.

By segment, first-half revenue in the HR business was ¥769 million against a full-year forecast of ¥1,900 million, representing 40.5% progress. Reaching the ¥1,425 million benchmark for 75% progress would require approximately ¥656 million of additional revenue from the end of the first half through the end of Q3. The Investment business, meanwhile, reported first-half revenue of ¥644 million against a full-year forecast of ¥1,340 million, representing 48.1% progress, with a 75% benchmark of ¥1,005 million. The Investment business therefore requires approximately ¥361 million in additional revenue and was relatively closer to plan than the HR business at the end of the first half.

In Q3, cumulative progress should be reconfirmed not only for consolidated revenue but also against the segment forecasts of ¥1,900 million for the HR business and ¥1,340 million for the Investment business. If the recovery in the HR business is delayed, achieving the operating profit forecast will require not only cost reductions but also revenue recognition in the second half. Whether the company maintains its full-year earnings forecast or revises its revenue or segment forecasts will also be an important point to check in the Q3 results.