Will the customer-led growth at existing stores continue in FY2026 Q3?

Consolidated revenue was ¥204.058 billion in the first half of FY2026, up just 0.4% year on year. Operating profit, however, was ¥30.2 billion, up 15.2%, meaning profit grew faster than sales. On the sales front, positive year-on-year same-store sales growth has continued for 43 consecutive quarters since the fourth quarter of FY2015. The clearest operating checkpoint is whether the current third quarter extends this streak to 44 consecutive quarters.

In the latest monthly data, September 2026 same-store sales were up 10.0% year on year, customer traffic was up 3.3%, and average spend per customer was up 6.5%. Since the contribution from average spend per customer exceeded that from customer traffic, it is necessary to distinguish between the effects of price revisions and higher-priced product launches and whether visit frequency itself is being maintained or increased. The quality of cumulative third-quarter performance will depend on whether September's growth was limited to a temporary effect from seasonal products or promotions, or whether positive customer traffic continues from October onward.

The company explained that systemwide sales increased in the first half as a result of improvements in QSC and convenience based on customer feedback, marketing, and investment in stores and personnel. However, it has not disclosed the amounts contributed by customer traffic, average spend per customer, and product mix to consolidated revenue, or the sales impact by promotion. In the third quarter, we would like to see the breakdown of same-store sales growth between customer traffic and average spend per customer, the volume impact after price revisions, and sales trends for core products.

First-half operating profit was up 15.2% year on year, while revenue increased just 0.4%. In the third-quarter results, it will be necessary to confirm whether profit growth is supported not merely by price effects but by increased customer traffic, improved store efficiency, and a better product mix. If same-store sales growth remains above 0% and customer traffic also stays positive, that would be a positive indicator when assessing the likelihood of achieving the full-year earnings forecast.