Q4 monetisation will determine whether the FY2026 full-year forecast is achieved

Revenue for the cumulative third quarter of FY2026 ending September 2026 was ¥3,221 million, down 1.7% year on year. Operating loss was ¥399 million, ordinary loss was ¥487 million and quarterly net loss was ¥491 million, although the losses narrowed from the same period of the previous year. However, progress against the full-year revenue forecast of ¥5,000 million was only 64.4%, 10.6 percentage points below the simple elapsed-period ratio of 75% at the end of the third quarter.

In the third quarter alone, revenue was approximately ¥1,344 million, operating profit was approximately ¥79 million and net profit was approximately ¥66 million. The company described revenue and operating profit as record highs. Securing an operating profit in the third quarter alone is an improvement, but cumulative operating loss remains ¥399 million. Achieving the full-year operating profit forecast of ¥45 million requires operating profit of ¥444 million in Q4, approximately 5.6 times the approximately ¥79 million generated in the third quarter alone.

Revenue also needs to reach ¥1,779 million in Q4. This is approximately ¥435 million, or approximately 32%, above the approximately ¥1,344 million generated in the third quarter alone. The company expects to generate external sales of AI-related tools and win multiple FDE service projects in Q4, but has not disclosed order values, the timing of revenue recognition or gross margins. Accordingly, achieving the full-year forecast depends not only on existing recruitment revenue but also on the timely closing and acceptance of new projects.

The hurdle for net profit is even higher. To move from a cumulative third-quarter net loss of ¥491 million to the full-year forecast of ¥1 million in net profit, Q4 would need to generate net profit of ¥492 million. At the earnings briefing Q&A, the company said it expected to return to operating profitability in Q4, while explaining that it was still assessing the impact of project outcomes and progress on net profit. The likelihood of achieving the operating profit and net profit forecasts therefore remains different.

At the next full-year results announcement, Q4 revenue, gross profit, operating profit and net profit should be examined separately, along with the contribution from external AI-related tool sales and FDE projects. In particular, whether actual results exceeded the required Q4 operating profit of ¥444 million and net profit of ¥492 million, or whether the full-year forecast was revised, will determine the assessment of FY2026.