Will a substantial recovery in FY2027 earnings begin in Q1?

Revenue in FY2026 was ¥1,558 million, down 17.7% year on year. Operating profit was ¥119 million, down 75.9%, ordinary profit was ¥127 million, down 73.8%, and net profit was ¥85 million, down 72.4%. For FY2027, the company forecasts revenue of ¥2,093 million, operating profit of ¥306 million, ordinary profit of ¥318 million and net profit of ¥218 million, implying operating profit growth of 155.5% year on year. On a simple calculation, the plan also calls for the operating margin to rise from 7.7% in FY2026 to approximately 14.6% in the FY2027 forecast.

In the first quarter of FY2026, revenue was ¥168 million, the operating loss was ¥101 million, the ordinary loss was ¥99 million and the net loss was ¥68 million. In the same quarter of the previous year, revenue was ¥114 million, the operating loss was ¥118 million, the ordinary loss was ¥131 million and the net loss was ¥115 million. This confirms that quarterly earnings can fluctuate significantly depending on the timing of deal closings. Accordingly, whether FY2027-Q1 is profitable should not be used alone to judge the success of the full-year plan. Revenue year on year, the size of the loss, the number of deals closed and deal value per transaction need to be considered together.

The FY2027 full-year forecast calls for revenue to increase by ¥535 million and operating profit by approximately ¥186 million from FY2026 actual results, and does not necessarily assume that profit will be generated evenly each quarter. インテグループ derives revenue solely from success fees, so quarterly results fluctuate with the timing of deal closings, transfer prices and the outcome of large transactions. In FY2026, the number of deals closed increased from 43 to 49, but revenue and profit declined because revenue per deal fell. A simple increase in the number of Q1 deals would therefore not by itself confirm a recovery.

At the next earnings announcement, it will be important to see whether the company discloses the number of deals closed, revenue per deal and average number of consultants, in addition to Q1 revenue, operating profit, ordinary profit and net profit. In particular, investors will want to see how much improvement there was from the ¥101 million operating loss in FY2026-Q1 and whether the full-year FY2027 forecasts of ¥2,093 million in revenue and ¥306 million in operating profit are maintained. Since the company has not disclosed a standalone Q1 forecast or an assumed even quarterly progression, one quarter of the full-year forecast should not be treated mechanically as a pass mark. The assessment needs to include deal quality and margins.