Risks of a global economic downturn, a stronger yen and sluggish consumer spending

「Meanwhile, the outlook for the economy remains uncertain due to U.S. policy developments, currency fluctuations and the prolonged geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Ukraine and elsewhere.」

「Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook due to overseas factors, including US tariff policy, the prolonged situation in Ukraine, heightened tensions in the Middle East and stagnation in the Chinese economy, continued.……As price increases caused by the weaker yen and higher raw material and energy prices outpaced wage growth, consumers' focus on protecting their household finances strengthened further and spending became increasingly cautious」

「Meanwhile, the economic outlook remained uncertain due to US tariff policy, the prolonged instability in Ukraine and the Middle East, and stagnation in the Chinese economy. In the retail industry, rising prices caused by the weaker yen and higher raw material and energy prices outpaced wage growth, further strengthening consumers' focus on protecting their household finances and making their spending more cautious. Inbound demand, which had been one factor supporting consumption, also began to lose some momentum, particularly for high-priced goods where demand had been overheated.」

「The risk has increased that the impact of US administration and trade policies will cause disruption to the global trading environment and sharp fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and the equity markets in the next fiscal year.」

「Japan’s economy during the interim consolidated accounting period saw continued moderate recovery, with improvements in corporate earnings and employment and income conditions. Expanding inbound demand also contributed to supporting the economy. However, rising raw material prices and energy costs, continued inflation resulting from the trend toward yen depreciation, the prolonged situations in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the slowdown in China’s economy left the economic outlook uncertain.」

「Meanwhile, uncertainty about the economic outlook intensified further due to rising prices resulting from surging raw material and resource prices and yen depreciation, as well as worsening conditions in Ukraine and the Middle East.」

「In the retail industry, the flow of people recovered following the lifting of restrictions on movement and consumption activity showed signs of recovery. However, wage growth failed to keep pace with rapidly rising prices, including successive price increases for everyday necessities, and growing consumer efforts to protect household finances due to concerns about the outlook continued to pose a downside risk to personal consumption.」

「In the retail industry, the flow of people recovered following the lifting of restrictions on movement and consumption activity showed signs of recovery. However, wage growth failed to keep pace with continuing price increases, personal consumption did not achieve a full recovery, and growing consumer efforts to protect household finances due to concerns about the outlook remained a concern.」

「Meanwhile, rising prices due to surging resource prices and yen depreciation continued, leaving the economic outlook uncertain. In the retail industry, the flow of people recovered following the lifting of restrictions on movement and consumption activity showed signs of recovery. However, personal consumption did not achieve a full recovery due to rising prices and concerns about the outlook, and growing consumer efforts to protect household finances remained a concern.」

「Meanwhile, prices rose rapidly due to surging raw material and resource prices stemming from the situation in Ukraine and yen depreciation, and the economy remained in an uncertain state.」

「Japan’s economy during the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year saw new infections of novel coronavirus disease remain contained through June and social activity normalize. From July onward, the seventh and eighth waves of infections arrived. Although no restrictions on movement were imposed, social activity was affected to a considerable extent amid vigilance over the spread of infections. In addition, the economic outlook remained uncertain due to surging raw material and resource prices stemming from the situation in Ukraine and yen depreciation.」

「Japan’s economy during the first half of the fiscal year saw new infections of novel coronavirus disease remain contained through June and social activity normalize. From July onward, however, the seventh wave of infections arrived and social activity stagnated, although no restrictions on movement were imposed. In addition, the economic outlook remained uncertain due to surging raw material and resource prices stemming from the situation in Ukraine and rapid yen depreciation.」

「Japan’s economy during the first quarter of the fiscal year saw new infections of novel coronavirus disease remain contained, with social activity normalizing and personal consumption showing signs of recovery. However, rapidly rising resource prices stemming from the situation in Ukraine and rising prices due to yen depreciation continued, leaving the economic outlook uncertain.」

「For the next fiscal year, the economic outlook is uncertain due to the lack of a clear prospect for containing novel coronavirus disease in Japan and overseas, as well as an unstable international situation surrounding Ukraine, surging energy and raw material prices and supply chain disruptions. In Japan, the rapid depreciation of the yen has also become more pronounced, driving a marked rise in prices and making consumption activity increasingly cautious. The business environment surrounding the Group is expected to remain challenging.」

「However, concerns about a renewed spread of infections caused by a new variant emerged in December, and the outlook remained uncertain.」

「Japan’s economy during the first half of the fiscal year remained in an extremely challenging condition as economic activity stagnated nationwide due to the fourth and fifth waves of novel coronavirus disease, the repeated issuance and extension of states of emergency, including the fifth wave, which reached the largest scale to date, and the application of priority preventive measures. Corporate earnings and personal consumption did not recover. Although containment of infections was expected to progress as vaccinations advanced, infections again spread due to variants, and the outlook remained uncertain.」

「Although the containment of infections was expected to progress as vaccinations gathered pace, concerns remained about a renewed spread caused by variants, and the outlook continued to be uncertain.」

「The outlook for containing novel coronavirus disease remained unclear, and uncertainty about the future continued.」

「Japan’s economy during the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year remained challenging as the impact of the spread of novel coronavirus disease in Japan and overseas persisted. Although economic activity gradually resumed after the state of emergency was lifted in late May and an economic recovery was expected, infections began rising again from July through August, resulting in a second wave. A larger third wave emerged in November, and the spread of infections continued, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「Japan’s economy during the first half of the fiscal year remained in an extremely challenging condition as the impact of the spread of novel coronavirus disease in Japan and overseas persisted. Although economic activity resumed after the lifting of the state of emergency and an economic recovery was expected, infections began rising again from July through August, raising concerns about a second wave and leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「Japan’s economy during the first quarter of the fiscal year remained in an extremely challenging condition due to deteriorating corporate earnings and shrinking personal consumption resulting from the spread of novel coronavirus disease in Japan and overseas. Although economic activity resumed after the lifting of the state of emergency and an economic recovery was expected, concerns about a second wave of infections remained, and the outlook continued to be uncertain.」

「In addition, the novel coronavirus disease that emerged in China in December 2019 spread worldwide from February 2020, becoming a pandemic and severely affecting the global economy as cities were placed under lockdown in many parts of the world.」

「The global economy continued to face an uncertain outlook due to numerous concerns, including expanding US-China trade friction, the UK’s EU withdrawal issue, economic slowdowns in China and Europe, and instability in the Middle East. In the retail industry, the business environment remained challenging as consumers grew increasingly concerned about the consumption tax rate increase and rising prices while real wages stagnated, strengthening their focus on prices and maintaining their preference for frugality. Although there was a rush in demand before the consumption tax increase, its subsequent backlash continued, and the fashion industry was severely affected by the exceptionally warm winter, leaving conditions even more challenging after the tax increase.」

「The global economy continued to face an uncertain outlook due to numerous concerns, including expanding US-China trade friction, the UK’s EU withdrawal issue, economic slowdowns in China and Europe. In the retail industry, the business environment remained challenging as consumers grew increasingly concerned about the consumption tax rate increase and rising prices while real wages stagnated, strengthening their focus on prices and maintaining their preference for frugality.」

「Although Japan’s employment and income conditions were said to remain on a gradual recovery track, uncertainty about the outlook continued amid concerns about the impact of an unstable global economy, including expanding US-China trade friction and economic slowdowns in China and Europe. In the retail industry, the business environment remained challenging as consumers grew increasingly concerned about the consumption tax rate increase and rising prices while real wages stagnated, strengthening their focus on prices and maintaining their preference for frugality.」

「Japan’s economy during the fiscal year remained on a moderate recovery track, with corporate earnings and capital investment remaining solid, but uncertainty about the outlook continued due to intensifying global trade friction and turmoil in the equity markets. In the retail industry, although personal consumption showed signs of recovery, the business environment remained challenging as consumers continued to favor frugality.」

「Japan’s economy during the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year remained on a moderate recovery track, with corporate earnings and capital investment remaining solid, but the outlook became uncertain due to intensifying global trade friction and turmoil in the equity markets. In the retail industry, the business environment remained challenging as consumers’ preference for frugality strengthened further. In addition, the fashion industry, including apparel, saw no major trend changes and was affected by the July 2018 heavy rains, repeated direct hits from large typhoons, the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake and an exceptionally warm winter, resulting in generally sluggish sales.」

「In the retail industry, the business environment remained challenging as consumers’ preference for frugality strengthened further. In addition, the fashion industry, including apparel, saw no major trend changes and was affected by the July 2018 heavy rains, repeated direct hits from large typhoons and the Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake, resulting in generally sluggish sales.」

「In the retail industry, the business environment remained challenging as consumers’ preference for frugality strengthened further while wage growth remained low.」

「Overseas, concerns about a slowdown in emerging-market economies increased and geopolitical risks in East Asia expanded, leaving the outlook uncertain. In the retail industry, improvements in employment and income conditions were expected to have a positive effect, but the business environment was challenging as wage growth remained low, consumers’ preference for frugality strengthened further and competition intensified.」

「Japan’s economy during the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year remained on a moderate recovery track, with corporate earnings improving on the back of solid capital investment and other factors. Overseas, however, concerns about a slowdown in emerging-market economies increased and geopolitical risks in East Asia expanded, leaving the outlook uncertain. In the retail industry, improvements in employment and income conditions were expected to have a positive effect, but the business environment was challenging as wage growth remained low, consumers’ preference for frugality strengthened further and competition intensified.」

「Overseas, economies in the US, China, Europe and elsewhere generally remained firm, but uncertainty about the outlook persisted due to downside risks to economic activity and expanding geopolitical risks in East Asia. In the retail industry, improvements in employment and income conditions were expected to have a positive effect, but the business environment was challenging as wage growth remained low, consumers’ preference for frugality strengthened further and competition intensified.」

「Japan’s economy during the first quarter of the fiscal year remained on a moderate recovery track, supported by government economic measures and monetary easing by the Bank of Japan, but the outlook remained uncertain due to concerns about US policy developments and political conditions in Europe, as well as slowing growth in emerging Asian economies, particularly China. In the retail industry, improvements in employment and income conditions were expected to have a positive effect, but the business environment was challenging as consumers continued to favor frugality, competition intensified and signs of deflation emerged in some areas.」

「Fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and turmoil in the equity markets continued amid the slowdown in emerging Asian economies, particularly China, the UK’s EU withdrawal issue, the impact of the US presidential election and concerns about the economic policies of the new administration, leaving the outlook uncertain. Consumer concerns about the future and sluggish growth in real income strengthened the preference for frugality, while inbound demand from foreign visitors to Japan also slowed, and personal consumption remained generally sluggish.」

「Japan’s economy during the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year saw fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and turmoil in the equity markets due to the slowdown in emerging Asian economies, particularly China, the UK’s EU withdrawal issue and the impact of the US presidential election, among other factors. The moderate recovery trend weakened, and uncertainty about the outlook continued. In the retail industry, improvements in employment and income conditions were expected to have a positive effect, but personal consumption remained generally sluggish due to the growing preference for frugality and the slowdown in inbound demand.」

「Japan’s economy during the first half of the fiscal year saw the yen appreciate and turmoil in the equity markets due to the slowdown in emerging Asian economies, particularly China, and the impact of the UK’s EU withdrawal issue, among other factors. The moderate recovery trend weakened, leaving the outlook uncertain. In the retail industry, improvements in employment and income conditions were expected to have a positive effect, but consumer sentiment weakened amid uncertainty about the outlook, and personal consumption remained generally sluggish.」

「Japan’s economy during the first quarter of the fiscal year was on a moderate recovery track, supported by government economic measures and other factors, but the yen appreciated and share prices fell amid the slowdown in emerging Asian economies, particularly China, and the impact of the UK’s EU withdrawal issue, making the outlook uncertain. In the retail industry, improvements in employment and income conditions were expected to have a positive effect, but consumer sentiment weakened amid falling share prices and uncertainty about the outlook, and personal consumption remained generally sluggish.」

「In addition to concerns about a global economic downturn stemming from the slowdown in China’s economy and falling crude oil prices, uncertainty about the outlook intensified due to the yen’s appreciation and the decline in share prices since January 2016. Personal consumption remained generally sluggish.」